While there are no Flash Flood Watches in effect for Western Illinois at the time of this post, we are tracking the risks for Flash Flooding for this weekend thanks to a lot of rain on the way. A River Flood Warning has been issued for the La Moine River at Colmar in McDonough County until Thursday morning. Moderate Flooding is expected to occur as a result of the rain this weekend. Flood Stage for the river is 20.0 feet. Right now the National Weather Service is forecasting the river to rise to 23.9 feet by next Tuesday morning and fall below flood stage by next Thursday morning. This is subject to change. Make sure to keep updated on the situation.
Forecast models overall have a good handle on this system with regards to the track. The GFS Model and the European Model (not pictured) is agreeing that the worst of the rain will move through Central Illinois and stay off to our South and East. However, there are one disagreement being noted with a forecast model. The NAM (North American Mesoscale Model) is wanting to track the worst of the precipitation further West in our neck of the woods. Now, the NAM is known for being less credible. The GFS (Global Forecast System Model) and European Models are usually more credible However, make sure to at least keep that forecast scenario in mind. While chances of it happening is low, it isn’t zero. It is possible that this system could shift further West and affect Western Illinois more. In addition to the track, the amount of moisture that we see is a key factor too. We could either see loads of precipitation, some precipitation, or no precipitation. It all depends on if this rain gets going too and right now it’s expected to get going. Right now, my prediction for Western Illinois is around 3-4 inches of rain. If you have sump pumps in your basement, make sure that they work! No one likes a flooded basement!